Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price is Back Down

Our expectations still suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) returned to decline in their recent trading at intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -1.98%. It settled at the price of $6.687 per million British thermal units, after it rose during yesterday’s trading by 2.16 %.

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After a sharp drop early Tuesday, natural gas futures recovered most of their losses and ended the day less than 15 cents from Friday’s close. Nymex futures for July eventually fell 13.6 cents at $6.808 per million British thermal units, and August futures fell 12.3 cents to $6.783.

Spot gas prices NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg also extended losses back from the June Holiday, down 29.5 cents to $6,475.

Economists note that the Freeport LNG terminal’s announcement that its facility will remain partially offline after the explosion last week, at least for several months, has sapped the number of bulls, who have already begun to decline in recent weeks.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed net long positions for natural gas declining in nearly the half week from June 14. This was the second largest drop in a single day according to EBW. The company said bullish attitudes were on hold after news of a 90-day outage at Freeport that raised the end-October storage target above 3.5 trillion cubic feet.

Technically, natural gas continues to search for a bullish bottom to try to make a base that might help it gain positive momentum to help it recover and rise again. This is amid the dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium term along a slope line, with the relative strength indicators reaching highly oversold areas. However, in front of that remains the negative pressure due to its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations still suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, but with an important condition, which is the stability of the pivotal support level 6.412, to target the first resistance levels at 7.368.