Bitcoin Showing Signs of Weakness

At this point, I do not have a scenario in which I would be bullish on Bitcoin in the intermediate term.

• The BTC/USD pair fell a bit Monday as traders came back from the weekend.
• The 50-day EMA continues to offer a little bit of dynamic resistance, and it makes sense that we could continue to go lower.
• The last several days have been choppy and noisy, but they have been a consistent grind lower.
• It’s likely that the longer-term trend is starting to come back into the picture.

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Looking Towards $20,000

It now looks as if we are going to reach the $20,000 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. It’s also an area where we had seen a lot of resistance previously, so “market memory” will come into the picture. If we break it down below there, then it’s likely that we see quite a bit of selling pressure, perhaps opening up the possibility of a test of the previous $18,000 level. Anything below there opens up quite a bit of selling pressure and kicks off a massive move lower. At that point, I would anticipate that Bitcoin could drop down to the $12,000 level.

The $12,000 level has been important multiple times in the past, especially as we broke out to shoot to the $60,000 level. I anticipate that the $12,000 level will almost certainly attract quite a bit of attention, so I think it’s only a matter of time before the market tries to form a bit of a basing pattern. I’d be a bit surprised if we broke much further than that, and I think that we are more likely than not going to see a longer-term building pattern that could give us an opportunity to build up a position over the longer term. I do not think that Bitcoin is going to change its attitude anytime soon, although there may be the occasional bounce.

Keep in mind that as long as the Federal Reserve remains very tight with its monetary policy, it’s almost impossible to be in the situation where cryptocurrency will take off for any length of time. After all, it is pretty far out on the risk spectrum, and traders and investors need to be confident enough to put money to work. At this point, I do not have a scenario in which I would be bullish on Bitcoin in the intermediate term.

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