The Index Is Sliding Lower

Our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record sharp losses in its last sessions, by -1.56%, to lose the index towards -491.27 points, to settle at the end of trading at the level of 30,947.00, after its rise in Friday’s trading by -0.20 %.

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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in June fell to a 16-month low of 98.7, as Americans grew increasingly concerned about rising gas and food prices and the health of the economy. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected the index to fall to 100 from a revised 103.2 in May. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -19, the lowest reading since May 2020.

New York Fed President John Williams said in a TV interview that he expects the US economy to slow, but not stagnate as the central bank aggressively tightens monetary policy in an effort to curb inflation. Williams said he expects policymakers to discuss whether to raise interest rates by another 50 or 75 basis points when they meet in July, after providing a 75 basis point increase earlier this month, the largest since 1994.

Technically, the index’s decline came amid the dominance of the short-term corrective bearish trend along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. The continued negative pressure of its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. This came despite the influx of positive signals with relative strength indicators, the indicator surrenders to negative pressures.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, especially in the event of its stability returning below the main support level 31,000, to target the support level 29,653.30.