Aussie Gaining Heavily Against Dollar

Commodity currencies have been performing well.

My signal on 11^th May might have produced a losing long trade from the bullish outside candlestick which rejected the support level I had identified at 0.6926.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7227 or 0.7275.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7162 or 0.7125.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast on 11^th May that the odds still favoured bears over bulls, but it seemed that the next major movement would not come until after the day’s US inflation data release and would be quite dependent upon it. This was a good call as the price continued its downward trend after the release.

The technical picture now is quite different, as we have seen the US Dollar weaken for almost three weeks, with the Australian Dollar one of the major gainers – the Aussie typically acts as a risk barometer, and we are seeing improved risk sentiment.

However, it remains true that the bullish price movement of the past few weeks is hardly a long-term trend and remains prone to a reversal. Yet until some data emerges to trigger that reversal, we are likely to see bulls continue to have the upper hand in this market.

I therefore think the best approach today in this currency pair will be to look for long trades.

The support level at 0.7162 looks to be an attractive entry point if the price gets back there and makes another bullish bounce.

Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of GDP data at 2:30am London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the USD.