Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price Attacks Resistance

We expect natural gas to rise during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized on the rise during the recent trading at the intraday levels. It achieved slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.50%, after its decline in trading on Friday by -1.00%, to break a series of gains that continued for seven consecutive sessions, and a day after it recorded its highest settlement since December 2008.

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Weather models converged to show a slightly cooler-than-normal weather pattern across much of the US during the latter part of April, as production ramped up.

NatGasWeather has indicated the potential for a significant increase in production, based on the latest data from Baker Hughes, which showed an increase of about 16 rigs in oil and gas rigs for the week ending April 8.

The Goldman Sachs analyst team led by Samantha Dart said in a note to clients on Friday: “Prices could stay higher for longer, especially with the news that the US will send an additional 15 billion cubic meters to Europe this year which made the headlines.” LNG exports to Europe have been already so high this year that volumes could halve over the rest of the year and still hit that target.

Technically, the stability of the price of natural gas came in its recent trading, after it hit the pivotal resistance level 6.412. This is the resistance that we had referred to in our previous reports, to reap the profits of its recent rises. It also tried to gain positive momentum and discharge its clear overbought by the relative strength indicators, especially with the start of negative signals. It is including, to prepare to attack that pivotal resistance.

All of this comes in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium term along a slope line. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the continuation of positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, we expect natural gas to rise during its upcoming trading, provided that it breaches the resistance level of 6.412, to target after that the resistance level of 7.181.