We expect natural gas to decline correctively during its upcoming trading.
Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) increased in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.89%, to settle at the price of $6.449 per million British thermal units, after it rose during yesterday’s trading by 3.38% .
As the July futures contracts expire on Tuesday, some renewed volatility dominated the market, as traders weighed a bunch of fundamentals, some positive and some negative.
While the weather forecast is relatively positive as demand is high in most parts of the United States, the negative effects will be stronger if the Freeport LNG facility continues to be interrupted after last week’s explosion. LNG exports to Europe will decrease and the rest will go to local stocks and local use.
Meanwhile, production in the US hit a year-to-date high of 97.36 billion cubic feet per day over the weekend, but recent data indicated a decline on Monday.
Technically, the price is trying with its recent rise to compensate for part of what it incurred from previous losses, and at the same time it is trying to dispose of some of its clear oversold by the relative strength indicators. This is especially with the start of positive signals from them. All of this comes in light of the control of the main bullish trend in the medium term along a slope line , as shown in the attached chart for a time period (daily).
The bearish corrective trend dominates in the short term, with the continuation of the negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days, which means doubling the negative pressures on its upcoming trading.
Therefore, we expect natural gas to decline correctively during its upcoming trading, especially in the event of its stability returning below the 6.361 level, to target the support level 5.660.
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