USD/TRY Forex Signal: Maintaining Narrow Trading Range

We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell orders were activated on Thursday’s recommendations.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 . levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.86 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

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The Turkish lira fell during the second trading day after the Turkish Central Bank’s decision to fix the interest rate last Thursday. This happened contrary to the desire of the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is following a new monetary policy, which includes lowering the interest rate. This is in order to attract real investments away from hot money that targets obtaining the largest financial return without realizing a real addition to the economy. It appears that the Turkish Central Bank’s decision is motivated by tightening monetary policy around the world. Where most central banks around the world raise interest rates or take steps towards reducing stimulus programs, it will push the Turkish Central Bank to fix the interest rate so as not to go against the global trend at the present time. In other decisions taken by the Turkish Central Bank this morning, the bank reduced the interest rate on the required reserves, denominated in lira, to zero percent.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira’s trading declined against the dollar with the beginning of the week’s trading, as the US dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained trading within a narrow trading range. This is evident on the chart, as the pair settled within very limited ranges before moving relatively strongly before resuming stability within a limited range. The pair is currently trading below the descending trend line on the 240-minute time frame, shown on the chart. The pair also varied below the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while it traded between the same averages on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.50 and 14.25 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.76 and 14.85, respectively. We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.